Mumbai : Bilateral goods trade between India and Canada, currently valued at $8.7 billion, could see more stable and sustained growth if the proposed Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) is concluded, according to an analysis by Rubix Data Sciences.
The report comes as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visits India to revive negotiations on the long-pending agreement. Goods trade between the two countries increased from $6.9 billion in FY2022 to $8.7 billion in FY2025, reflecting an annual growth rate of about 8%. However, Rubix noted that this growth has been accompanied by volatility linked to commodity cycles.
In the first nine months of FY2026 (April–December 2025), total goods trade declined 13% year-on-year, largely due to a 31% drop in India’s imports from Canada following earlier increases in commodity purchases.
The analysis highlighted that trade flows remain heavily influenced by commodities such as fertilisers, pulses and energy products. At the same time, India’s exports to Canada are gradually diversifying. The share of finished pharmaceutical products has risen, and electronics exports, including smartphones and telecom equipment, have gained prominence.
Canada continues to supply key resources to India, including dried leguminous vegetables, diamonds and fertilisers, supporting India’s food supply and gem and jewellery sectors.
Rubix said a CEPA could improve market access, reduce tariffs and strengthen supply chains, potentially lowering volatility and supporting long-term growth. Both countries have set a target of reaching $50 billion in bilateral trade by 2030.
